We remain generally cautious about following any euro/dollar rally into the tariff event and instead see mostly downside risks, barring any meaningful U.S. data surprise,
The RBA's statement suggests they're inching towards their next cut, but in no rush to signal one ahead of the election or the quarterly inflation figures,
We expect the U.S. government to announce some sort of asymmetric reciprocal tariff scheme and 25 per cent tariffs on food and potentially other items like pharma, which might include some exclusions for Canada and Mexico,
We expect roughly a one-month delay in implementation, leaving space for negotiation. We think about a third to a half of the announced measures will not get implemented - at least, not for an extended period,
You'd start with all countries,
And in addition, the other tariffs are going to raise about $600 billion a year, about $6 trillion over a 10-year period,
Essentially all of the countries that we're talking about. We've been talking about all countries, not a cutoff,
I haven't heard a rumor about 15 countries, 10 or 15,
They ripped us off like no country has ever been ripped off in history and we're going to be much nicer than they were to us. But it's substantial money for the country nevertheless,
The tariffs will be far more generous than those countries were to us, meaning they will be kinder than those countries were to the United States of America over the decades,