China Saw Booming Exports In 2024 As Trump Tariffs Loom

China does not aim for a trade surplus. The specific levels of exports, imports and trade balances are the result of international supply-and-demand dynamics, industrial division of labor and market competition,

Wang said

China wants to increase imports, but if you don't let the goods in, and then you worry about our trade surplus, that's inherently inconsistent,

he noted

So monetary easing policy needs to be more proactive to really reduce the borrowing cost of enterprises, which is important for a broad recovery of the economy,

she told AFP

We expect shipments to remain strong in the coming months, as US importers continue to stockpile Chinese goods ahead of tariff hikes,

Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note

But exports are likely to weaken later this year as President Trump puts his tariff threats into action,

she added

Outbound shipments are likely to stay resilient in the near-term, supported by further gains in global market share thanks to a weak real effective exchange rate,

she wrote

Regarding this year's imports, we believe that there is still a lot of room for growth. This is not only because my country's market capacity is large, there are many levels, and it has huge potential."

Lv Daliang, a Customs Administration spokesperson, said

In addition, some countries politicize economic and trade issues, abuse export control measures, and unreasonably restrict the export of some products to China, otherwise we will import more,

he said

In 2024, China's total exports exceeded 25 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 25.45 trillion yuan ($3.47 trillion), an increase of 7.1 percent year-on-year,

Lu Daliang, spokesman for the General Administration of Customs, said at a news conference

With the help of strong exports and macro policy easing, the economic momentum likely stabilised,

wrote Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, in a note following the publication of the trade figures

China's position as the world's largest goods trading nation has become even more secure,

Wang added

But outbound shipments will weaken later this year if Trump follows through on his threat to impose 60 percent tariffs on all Chinese goods,

she wrote

Trade frontloading became more visible in December as a result of both Chinese New Year effects and Donald Trump's inauguration,

said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit

Import growth could be underpinned by stockpiling of commodities like copper and iron ore, as part of (China's) 'buy low' strategy,

he added

The double-digit rise in December exports (led by the U.S. and ASEAN), along with the increase in the PMI new export orders, supports our earlier judgement that the threat of tariffs could affect export patterns in the next couple of quarters, with a potential boost in shipments before the introduction of new tariffs, followed by a drop-off,

Barclays analysts said in a note

We think increased fiscal spending, much of it probably still focused on investment, will drive construction activity and boost demand for industrial commodities in the coming months,

said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics