We are close” to a soft landing for the US economy
Risks are intensifying which could push up energy prices,
Persistent structural headwinds — such as population aging and weak productivity — are holding back potential growth in many economies,
In India, the outlook is for gross domestic product (GDP) growth to moderate from 8.2 per cent in 2023 to 7 per cent in 2024 and 6.5 per cent in 2025, because pent-up demand accumulated during the pandemic has been exhausted as the economy reconnects with its potential,
Further disruptions to the disinflation process, potentially triggered by new spikes in commodity prices amid persistent geopolitical tensions, could prevent central banks from easing monetary policy, which would pose significant challenges to fiscal policy and financial stability,
Deeper- or longer-than-expected contraction in China’s property sector, especially if it leads to financial instability, could weaken consumer sentiment and generate negative global spillovers given China’s large footprint in global trade,
Engaging early with key stakeholders, such as trade unions and business associations, has also been an effective approach toward communicating the need for reforms. [Like] in India, key principles deployed in the states of Gujarat and Rajasthan, which pioneered more flexible labour laws, skill development initiatives, and job creation strategies, were later adopted for national labour law reforms,
This rebalancing is tending to boost activity in the services sector in advanced and emerging markets but is dampening manufacturing. Manufacturing production is also increasingly shifting toward emerging market economies—in particular, China and India—as advanced economies lose competitiveness,
An escalation in regional conflicts, especially in the Middle East, could pose serious risks for commodity markets. Shifts toward undesirable trade and industrial policies can significantly lower output relative to our baseline forecast,
Despite the good news on inflation, downside risks are increasing and now dominate the outlook,
In view of its population growth, investment rate and productivity, it has growth prospects that are double those of Europe."
It is crucial to swiftly follow up, with concrete and ambitious structural policies, on Mario Draghi's proposals for enhancing European competitiveness,
Persistent weakness in manufacturing weighs on growth for countries such as Germany and Italy,
Europe has experienced two shocks, while the United States has only experienced one,
Germany is experiencing strain from fiscal consolidation and a sharp decline in real estate prices,
Despite a sharp and synchronized tightening of monetary policy around the world, the global economy has remained unusually resilient throughout the disinflationary process, avoiding a global recession,
The return of inflation to near central bank targets paves the way for a much-needed policy triple pivot. The first—on monetary policy—has started. Since June, major central banks in advanced economies have started to cut their policy rates, moving their policy stance toward neutral,
It looks like the global battle against inflation has largely been won, even if price pressures persist in some countries,
Economic growth must come instead from ambitious domestic reforms that boost technology and innovation, improve competition and resource allocation, further economic integration and stimulate productive private investment,
So if the feds want to step in and provide that money to the states we’re more than happy to take it,