Investors fear that this trade war will result in a significant deterioration in the global economy,
If we are attacked in terms of trade, Europe - as a true power - will have to stand up for itself and therefore react,
The lack of a clear economic rationale behind this decision - justified primarily as a measure to curb illegal immigration and fentanyl imports - has unsettled investors,
With tariffs set to come in on Tuesday, there is a small window to come to some sort of accommodation. But President Trump has downplayed the chances of a deal before then,
This does not mean that the UK economy will avoid impact from the tariffs, but it does mean that the UK economy could be more resilient than elsewhere.”
February seems likely to begin with a Trump tariff tantrum, with very early futures prices signalling declines of more than 600 points for the Dow Jones, and declines of 2% or more for the benchmark S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices.”
It’s too early to know exactly what impact tariffs will have on the global economy, but it is fair to say that they have a high potential of triggering inflation, and weighing heavily on global growth, including the US economy.”
This wasn't a shock. It's been telegraphed for weeks but investors will still feel the jolt as markets adjust to a move almost universally seen as damaging to global growth and financial stability,
We suspect the path of least resistance for now is for Asian currencies and risk assets to weaken, together with a greater risk premia to account for future meaningful tariff moves beyond what we have seen,
The implications for trade restrictions could result in reduced global trade flows, supply chain shifts which could mean higher costs for businesses, and higher inflation,