It’s our declaration of independence,
We do not know how long the previously enacted tariffs and any future tariffs will remain in force, but we believe peak tariff uncertainty may soon be behind us,
When the press conference first started the President said tariffs would start with a 10 per cent baseline across the board. That was better than expected, which was why we saw futures rallying. But once he got to specifics and started giving examples which were significantly higher than 10 per cent, that’s when futures turned around and went negative because it was worse than expected,
The President is risking a recession with this national sales tax he calls tariffs—while needlessly alienating our closest allies,
Well, the stock market's closed, but the futures are tanking,
President Trump just finished his tariff speech at the White House and we would characterize this slate of tariffs as 'worse than the worst case scenario' the Street was fearing,
If, as I expect, tariffs do not have a significant or persistent effect on inflation, they are unlikely to affect my view of appropriate monetary policy."
The optimal monetary response is to stimulate the economy, raising aggregate income and boosting demand for imported goods,
Investor perceptions of Trump differ significantly between bond and stock markets, possibly due to political affiliations within these groups. Notably, bond markets lean Republican, whereas stock markets — and even more intensely hedge funds — lean Democratic,
AAII bears are above 50% for 5 straight weeks for only the third time in history. The first time was in Oct 1990 and that marked a major low and the other time was at the lows of the 2022 bear market.”
This scenario -- while hardly a positive for economics or earnings assumptions -- would increase the conviction behind how we respond to the 'facts',
For traders and investors, today represents a day of huge uncertainty as we weigh up the potential for retaliatory tariffs and a tit-for-tat trade war,
The danger is actually, what's going to happen after the announcement, whether we're going to see the European Union coming back with some retaliatory tariffs, and really the kind of the outlook from that,
Because of the U.S.'s broad nature and the quality of companies, it's quite difficult to look elsewhere, longer term, and avoid the U.S.,
If you take a look at the commodities markets, it's crazy, because on the one hand you're talking about secondary sanctions on Venezuela oil, potentially a Russia-Ukraine deal, which may bring Russian crude back into the market, which is a completely different game, and now potential secondary sanctions on Russian oils. It is very difficult to price anything at the moment, so we are taking it day by day and hour by hour, sometimes,
I'm hoping that there is a sense of moderation tonight, we'll see. Maybe that's too naive, after everything we saw from Trump,
He has a brilliant team of trade advisers,
Perhaps the most important question is whether this announcement will tip the scales towards a global recession,
We think the potential for even higher volatility from here is thus limited,
Volatility is now having its 'dirty-shirt' effect – it's already stained, so a little more 'mud' won't do much else,