I'm confident in the U.S. but we can't be complacent,
Volatility is what the gamblers in single-stock ETFs are looking for,
Innovation and competition emerging in something as early-stage and dynamic as AI is not that surprising,
DeepSeek R1 is AI's Sputnik moment."
While DeepSeek itself isn't publicly investable, one way to guard against such risks may be diversifying away from the so-called Magnificent Seven tech giants
I want to build this, and it will be a game change'
While DeepSeek has clearly ruffled feathers, its spike in popularity isn't likely to drastically damage chipmakers like Nvidia alone
When we first met him, he was this very nerdy guy with a terrible hairstyle talking about building a 10,000-chip cluster to train his own models,
US Big Tech, long considered untouchable, is facing credible and intensifying competition from China
The problem is that the AI industry is embryonic. And it's almost impossible to know how it will develop or what competition current winners might face even if you fully believe in its potential to drive future productivity. The stratospheric rise of DeepSeek reminds us of this,
It's gone from LTM earnings of around $4bn two years ago to around $63bn in the last quarterly release. For context, this is around half the total earnings made by listed stocks in each of UK, Germany and France over the last 12 months,
Current AI investment is unprecedented, but we would note this is largely counter to the precedents set across the history of computing,
We see little reason this specific model paradigm should be seen as a negative for hardware spending in either the near or long term,
If it’s true that DeepSeek is the proverbial 'better mousetrap,' that could disrupt the entire AI narrative that has helped drive the markets over the last two years
However, it could also mean that AI becomes more accessible and help kickstart the development of a wide array of useful applications,
There is a high level of concentration in equity markets on certain stocks, unprecedented in nature, so that could pose some market-driven risks and that will support bonds for now,
When in doubt, do you go against Zuckerberg? Do you go against Ellison? I come back and say, I don't know. Sometimes it's better to say I don't know,
We still don´t know the details and nothing has been 100% confirmed in regards to the claims, but if there truly has been a breakthrough in the cost to train models from $100 million+ to this alleged $6 million number this is actually very positive for productivity and AI end users as cost is obviously much lower meaning lower cost of access.
The idea that the most cutting-edge technologies in America, like Nvidia and ChatGPT, are the most superior globally, there's concern that this perspective might start to change.
Deepseek R1 is one of the most amazing and impressive breakthroughs I´ve ever seen - and as open source, a profound gift to the world.